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futurology - Description
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| Futurology basics
Two factors usually distinguish the studies from the research conducted by other disciplines (although all disciplines overlap, to differing degrees): |
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| } In a linear conception of time, the future is the portion of the timeline that has yet to occur, i.e. the place in space-time where lie all events that still have not occurred. In this sense the future is opposed to the past (the set of moments and events that have already occurred) and the present (the set of events that are occurring now). Futurists are those who look to and provide analysis of the future. The discipline is referred to by different terms, depending on the cultural context. Such names include foresight, futurism, prospective and futuribles (in France, the latter is also the name of the important 20th century foresight journal published only in French), and prospectiva (in Latin America). Futures studies has become the common term in the English-speaking world. |
Futurologists attempt to apply Strategic Foresight for forecasting alternative futures. While forecasting – i.e., attempts to predict future states from current trends – is a common methodology, professional scenarios often rely on "backcasting" – i.e., asking what changes in the present would be required to arrive at envisioned alternative future states. For example, the Policy Reform and Eco-Communalism scenarios developed by the Global Scenario Group rely on the backcasting method. Practitioners of futures studies classify themselves as futurists (or foresight practitioners ).
The modern multi-disciplinary and cross-cultural discipline of futurology, known more generally as futures studies, emerged in the mid-1960's, according to first-generation futurists Olaf Helmer, Bertrand de Jouvenel, Dennis Gabor, Oliver Markley, Burt Nanus, and Wendell Bell. 2 Futures studies reflects on how today’s changes (or the lack thereof) become tomorrow’s reality. It includes attempts to analyze the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in order to develop foresight and to map alternative futures. The subjects and methods of futures studies include possible, probable, and desirable variations or alternative transformations of the present, both social and “natural” (i.e. independent of human impact). A broad field of inquiry, futures studies explores and represents what the present could become from multiple interdisciplinary perspectives. As a discipline it is still early in conceptual and methodological development, grounding, and validation. The Limits to Growth by Dennis Meadows is a good place to start. It is widely used by corporations, as a discipline to challenge strategies composed for long term growth. Education in the field of Futurology has taken place for some time. Beginning in the United States of America in the 1960s, it has since developed in many different countries. Futures education can encourage the use of concepts, tools and processes that allow students to think long-term, consequentially, and imaginatively.